Job Market Shows Stability

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U.S. private ​payrolls posted their largest increase in 15 months in April, pointing to continued labor market ‌stability even as the conflict in the Middle East clouds the economy's outlook.

The labor market remains in a "low-hire, low-fire" state, though economists are warning of downside risks as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran fans inflation. The latest sign of labor market stability in the ​ADP's national employment report on Wednesday bolsters financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve would leave interest ​rates unchanged into 2027.

"The labor market has been on solid but precarious footing for ⁠some time, not exactly growing but also not significantly deteriorating," said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet. "Amid ongoing ​global conflict, the fallout of a continuing oil shock and continued economic policy uncertainty, it would take more than ​one strong report on the labor market to signal we're facing a different labor environment."

Private employment rose by 109,000 jobs last month, the biggest increase since January 2025, after a downwardly revised 61,000 gain in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private ​employment advancing by 99,000 jobs after a previously reported 62,000 increase in March.

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